Research Document: The State of Nigeria's Economy:...not too late to turn the curve

Posted Thu, Sep 8, 2022 4:10 PM

Whilst the world continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, new shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and heightened inflationary trend, have emerged, thereby wreaking havoc on the global economy. These shocks drifted many economies, including advanced and emerging countries, far from full recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. A combination of a surge in commodity prices heightened global inflationary pressure, and supply chain disruptions dampened the global economic performance and outlook.

On the domestic front, the Nigerian economy witnessed a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic with a real Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth of 3.33 percent in H1-2022 (3.11 percent in Q1-2022 and 3.54 percent in Q2-2022). The performance of the economy in the period under review signified that Nigeria has fully recovered from the impact of the pandemic. However, there are mixed performances in policy and external environments with a hostile business operating space for the private sector during the period.

The GDP growth projection for the year 2022 was also revised downward to 2.5 percent in business as usual, while the best case is 3.5 percent, and the worst case is estimated at 1.0 percent. In addition to reviewing other key macroeconomic variables, the report ends with specific and short-term policy recommendations to ensure the Nigerian economy closes the year on a robust level.