Research Document: NESG 2023 Macroeconomic Outlook

Macro-Economic Outlook

Posted Wed, Jan 18, 2023 3:39 AM

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The year 2022 brought with it a mix of challenges for countries across the globe, including Nigeria. The Nigerian economy sustained post-COVID-19 growth momentum. However, it was lower than expected and led by the non-oil sector, while the oil sector remained in contraction, despite elevated global oil prices. Furthermore, economic expansion has not translated into improving socioeconomic conditions, such as poverty and inequality.

To address these issues, comprehensive and system-driven economic reforms are necessary to change Nigeria's economic trajectory and create economic value and benefits for all. The 2023 Macroeconomic Outlook Report, titled "Nigeria in Transition: Recipes for Shared Prosperity," addresses pertinent questions relating to policy design, processes, and framing in creating economic prosperity for all.

The report is divided into three parts. Part A of the report offers a comprehensive examination of the state of the Nigerian economy in 2022 and delves into six (6) key themes that contributed to its weak performance. These themes are a relapse in economic growth, a combination of cost-push and demand-pull inflationary pressure, a decline in fiscal performance, tight monetary policy, amplified external vulnerability, and a decline in investor confidence.

Part B presents an implementable policy framework for achieving Shared Prosperity in Nigeria. The framework's overall objectives include building a robust, competitive, and sustainable economy and ensuring economic prosperity for all. It includes four (4) strategic thrusts, eight (8) enablers, measurable targets, and immediate and medium-term recipes to build a solid foundation and attain core indicators of Shared Prosperity.

In conclusion, Part C presents the macroeconomic projection for Nigeria in 2023 and the risks that could impact these projections. These projections, along with the implementable policy framework provided in Part B, will guide policy-makers in addressing the challenges faced by the Nigerian economy and moving towards a path of Shared Prosperity.

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A presentation on the 2023 Macroeconomic Outlook by
Olusegun Omisakin, PhD