Research Document: NESG 2022 GDP Alert, February 2022

Posted Mon, Feb 27, 2023 1:21 PM

The Nigerian economy expanded by 3.5 percent in 2022Q4 but slowed for FY’2022

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Nigerian economy grew by 3.5 percent (year-on-year) in 2022Q4, relative to a growth of 2.3 percent in the corresponding period of 2021 (see Figure 1a). In the full year (FY) 2022, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged 3.1 percent. This represents a slight slowdown relative to an economic expansion of 3.4 percent recorded in FY’2021 (see Figure 1b). In nominal terms, the size of the economy in FY’2022 stood at N199.3 trillion (US$470.7 billion), representing a 14.9 percent increase relative to 2021 (N173.5 trillion or US$434.4 billion). This translates to a per capita income of US$2,154 in 2022, which is 5.6 percent higher than its level of US$2,039 in 2021. However, the size of the economy in real terms stood at N74.6 trillion in 2022, which is less than half its nominal value. This reflects the eroding effect of rising prices in the year.

However, on a quarterly basis, the economy grew faster for the second consecutive quarter by 11 percent in 2022Q4 relative to a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.7 percent in 2022Q3. Moreover, the sustained growth momentum through the four quarters of 2022 partly reflects the positive impact of pre-election spending despite monetary policy tightening in most of 2022 in an attempt to rein in inflationary pressures.

The non-oil sector drove the growth momentum, as the oil sector remained in contraction. Accounting for 95.7 percent of the total real GDP, the non-oil sector expanded by 4.4 percent (year-on-year) in 2022Q4, representing a slight improvement compared with a 4.3 percent growth in 2022Q3 (see Figure 2). This performance was driven by the fast pace of growth in the Agricultural and ICT sectors and a rebound in the Manufacturing sector, which jointly accounted for 51 percent of the total real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022. For FY’2022, the non-oil sector grew faster by 4.8 percent, relative to a growth of 4.4 percent in 2021.

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