Research Document: GDP Alert 2023 Q3

Posted Thu, Nov 30, 2023 5:34 PM

Key Highlights from the NESG Alert on Nigeria’s GDP for 2023Q3

• The Nigerian economy stood flat at 2.5 percent (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2023 relative to 2023Q2 but was an improvement over the economic expansion in 2022Q3. Cumulatively, economic growth stood at 2.5 percent lower than the average growth of 3 percent, partly attributable to tough reforms including the Naira redesign, fuel subsidy removal, and exchange rate unification.

• The Non-oil sector - the main growth catalyst - expanded by 2.8 percent (year-on-year) in 2023Q3. Conversely, the oil sector contracted mildly by 0.9 percent, attributed mainly to the significant increase in the country’s average domestic crude oil production.

• In 2023Q3, the Services sector was the best growth performer expanding by 4 percent, followed by the Agricultural sector (1.3 percent) and the Industrial sector (0.5 percent). While growth was sustained in the Services and Agricultural sectors, the Industrial sector recovered in the quarter.

• The sharp contraction in the Road Transport sub-sector (-37 percent) reflects the protracted adverse impact of the fuel subsidy removal, which took effect in the second quarter of 2023.