Research Document: EPR Journal H1 2020

Posted Tue, Oct 27, 2020 2:21 PM

The global economy started the year 2020 with hopes of gradually reducing trade tensions
reflected by a partial trade deal reached by the United States and China. The IMF earlier
projected that global GDP would expand by 3.3% in its World Economic Outlook for 2020
released in January. Meanwhile, the world was caught unawares by the sudden outbreak of
COVID-19 in Wuhan City of China and its rapid spread to the rest of the world. Against the
huge economic damage brought about by the viral infection, the IMF's revised growth
forecasts showed that the global economy would contract sharply by -4.4% in 2020. The
Fund also downgraded its growth projections for major advanced economies and emerging
markets to negative territory. Consequently, the Nigerian economy was hardly hit by the
twin crisis of health shocks and pandemic-induced decline in crude oil prices. The IMF
expects the economy to contract by -4.3% in 2020. In this article, we present a review of the
global economy as well as the Nigerian economy in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic.
Specifically, we revised our growth projections for the Nigerian economy in 2020. In our
worst scenario, we estimated that the economy will contract by -7.3% in 2020.