Posted Thu, Mar 6, 2025 8:03 PM

NESG Launches 2025 Private Sector Outlook: Adapting to Economic Uncertainties for Growth and Resilience

Download The Nigeria's Private Sector in 2025 Adapting to Economic Uncertainty for Growth and Resilience Document

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) on Thursday, the 6th of March, 2025 launched the 2025 Private Sector Outlook, highlighting key economic trends, challenges, and opportunities for businesses navigating the evolving Nigerian economy. The event, jointly organized by the Corporate Affairs and Stakeholder Management Department and the Research and Development Department of NESG, provided insights into macroeconomic conditions and strategies for private sector resilience.

In her opening remarks, NESG Board Director, Mrs. Wonu Adetayo, emphasized the vital role of the private sector in shaping a resilient economy. She noted that despite structural weaknesses and macroeconomic volatility, Nigeria experienced an economic growth improvement in 2024, driven by reform efforts that enhanced investment levels. However, stagnant productivity and persistent macroeconomic imbalances led to deteriorating living standards and heightened economic distress.

Mrs. Adetayo pointed out that Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.4% in 2024, the highest growth since 2021, with the number of expanding activity sectors increasing from 32 in 2023 to 38 in 2024. She highlighted key reforms, such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate harmonization, which contributed to economic stabilization. However, inflationary pressures remain a concern. Following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation declined from 34.8% (using the old base year) to 24.5% (using the new base year) in January 2025. Nevertheless, month-on-month inflation increased significantly, signaling persistent economic challenges.

In his presentation, Dr. Segun Omisakin, Chief Economist and Director of Research at NESG, provided an in-depth analysis of the private sector’s performance and economic risks in 2024. He noted that while foreign exchange availability improved due to policy reforms, Nigeria’s currency depreciated significantly, with the official exchange rate averaging 1,479.9 Naira to the U.S. Dollar in 2024. Trade surpluses and increased foreign capital inflows were recorded, yet fiscal constraints persisted, with public debt rising to 142.3 trillion Naira as of September 2024.

Dr. Omisakin highlighted the struggles faced by Nigeria’s private sector, including foreign exchange shortages, insecurity, inadequate infrastructure, and limited market access. He pointed out that between 2023 and 2024, multinational divestments and business closures led to an estimated 94 trillion Naira economic loss. Additionally, 30% of Nigeria’s 24 million registered MSMEs shut down during this period, underscoring the country’s economic vulnerability.

Looking ahead to 2025, Dr. Omisakin stressed the need for businesses to adapt to economic uncertainties and employ strategic measures for growth and resilience. He outlined NESG’s framework of economic stabilization, consolidation, and acceleration, emphasizing the importance of monitoring reform efficacy and implementing policies that enhance private sector competitiveness.

Key Economic Challenges and Insights

Discussions focused on Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, with panelists acknowledging the impact of currency depreciation, policy instability, and global market trends. A major concern highlighted was the lack of immediate monetary interventions following the removal of the fuel subsidy, which exacerbated inflationary pressures. Inconsistent customs regulations and fluctuating exchange rates were also identified as deterrents to investment and operational stability for businesses.

Panelists noted that foreign direct investors prioritize policy stability over the exchange rate itself, emphasizing that investors are willing to engage regardless of currency value, as long as policies remain consistent. This was evident in discussions with potential investors in Qatar, where concerns about unpredictable market conditions hindered commitments.

The Need for Private Sector Inclusion in Policy Formulation

The panelists called for stronger collaboration between the public and private sectors, stressing that business associations like the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists (NASSI), and the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) must be actively involved in economic decision-making. They warned against government overreach into private sector affairs, urging policymakers to recognize business organizations as essential stakeholders in negotiations on trade and investment.

"Government must act as a facilitator, not a competitor, in economic affairs. Business organizations should always be in the room when key negotiations take place to ensure broad-based economic benefits," Dele Kelvin Oye, Esq. President, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA); Chairman, Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN) stated.

Call for Policy Stability and Economic Certainty

The discussion further emphasized the importance of policy consistency, citing the example of tariff policies in the United States and their immediate impact on financial markets. It was argued that unpredictable policies deter investments and disrupt market confidence.

Panelists also highlighted the challenges posed by law enforcement inefficiencies and regulatory bottlenecks, which hinder business competitiveness. They called for legal reforms and improved regulatory clarity to foster an environment conducive to investment and business expansion.

The NESG’s 2025 Private Sector Outlook serves as a strategic guide for businesses, policymakers, and investors navigating the economic landscape. It provides a roadmap for fostering a stable and competitive business environment, ensuring that Nigeria’s private sector remains resilient and contributes to sustainable economic growth.

The NESG remains committed to advocating for policies that enhance economic growth and ensure that the private sector is adequately represented in policy formulation. By fostering dialogue between policymakers and business leaders, NESG aims to create a stable and predictable economic environment that attracts both local and international investors.

Ayanyinka Ayanlowo

Ag. Head, Strategic Communication and Advocacy

NESG

Download The Nigeria's Private Sector in 2025 Adapting to Economic Uncertainty for Growth and Resilience Document