Posted Thu, Jan 23, 2025 8:45 PM

NESG Launches 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report

Download The NESG 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Document

L-R: Dr Olusegun Omisakin, Chief Economist & Director of Research and Development, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG); Mrs Rolake Akinkugbe-Filani, Anchor, Business Week, Arise News;  Mr Niyi Yusuf, Chairman, NESG; Mr Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman, Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms; Mrs Ola Oladele, Founder, The Money Wit Club; Dr Tayo Aduloju, CEO, NESG and Dr Samer Naji Matta, Senior Economist for Nigeria, World Bank Group.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) launched its 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report on Thursday, January 23, 2025, under the theme "Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond." The report provides an in-depth analysis of Nigeria’s reform agenda, initiated in mid-2023, which aimed to tackle longstanding structural challenges and drive sustainable economic growth. As the report underscores, the country is now at a critical juncture, with the focus shifting towards economic stabilization while sustaining reform momentum.

NESG Chairman, Mr. Niyi Yusuf, opened the event by reflecting on the progress made in 2024. “Last year marked a significant step toward economic transformation as key conditions began to stabilize,” he noted. “However, there’s still much work to be done. Macroeconomic indicators show that Nigeria is yet to achieve full stability. Inflationary pressures, rising food prices, infrastructure deficits, and exchange rate depreciation remain persistent challenges.”

Highlighting key achievements, Yusuf stated, “Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of $8 billion in 2024, compared to $1 billion in 2023. The economy expanded by 3.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 2.5% in the same period the previous year. Despite these gains, inflation averaged 33.2% in 2024, driven by extreme climate conditions and rising food costs. Over 33 million Nigerians are now food insecure due to natural disasters and high food prices.”

Looking ahead, Yusuf emphasized the need for cohesive policies. “The optimal path to stabilization requires a consolidation and alignment of monetary, fiscal, social safety, trade, and regulatory strategies. This alignment will transition Nigeria to the Consolidation Phase of its Economic Transformation Roadmap, creating an improved policy environment and attracting investments in growth-enhancing sectors.”

Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, NESG’s Chief Economist and Director of Research, presented the outlook and offered projections for the future. “A GDP growth rate of 5.5% is achievable if Nigeria continues with stability-focused reforms,” he stated. “However, inefficient policy implementation and economic constraints could limit growth to 3.4%, and a reversal of reforms could see it drop to 2.7%. The quality of policy execution in 2025 will determine whether Nigeria reaches its stabilization goals or falls short.”

Dr. Omisakin also emphasized the importance of continuing the foreign exchange price discovery exercise initiated in 2023. “Exchange rate stability will be crucial,” he said. “We believe operating at an exchange rate of ₦1,200 to $1 will significantly contribute to economic stability.”

CBN Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, delivered the keynote address, lauding NESG’s contributions to Nigeria’s socioeconomic discourse. “The launch of this report highlights NESG’s commitment to fostering economic development,” he remarked. “The CBN is taking transformative steps, including the establishment of a Compliance Department to align with global standards and enhance transparency. This department will be operational by February 2025.”

Cardoso also announced plans to launch a Foreign Exchange Code aimed at ensuring transparency and fairness in the FX market. “We are committed to reducing the disparity between bureau de change and official exchange rates while fostering exchange rate stability to attract foreign investments and support fiscal operations,” he added.

World Bank Senior Economist for Nigeria, Dr. Samer Matta, emphasized the need to mitigate the impact of reforms on the poor and vulnerable. “Reforms are tough choices, but scaling up and financing social interventions is crucial for ensuring a sustainable future,” he said.

IMF Country Representative for Nigeria, Dr. Christian H. Ebeke, addressed inflationary pressures caused by deficit financing. “Creating money not backed by output has fueled inflation,” he explained. “Improved fiscal discipline is necessary to address this issue.”

From a fiscal perspective, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, noted, “Borrowing is a better approach to deficit financing than printing money. Tax reforms, such as improved VAT collection and harmonization of tax processes, show that Nigeria is on the right path. These measures will enhance revenue generation and fiscal sustainability.”

Professor Bright Eregha, a macroeconomics expert at Pan Atlantic University, also shared insights on Nigeria’s growth trajectory. “We’ve seen real growth over the past three quarters, and I expect the average growth for 2024 to be higher than in recent years. If we sustain this momentum, 2025 could deliver even better outcomes,” he stated.

Concluding the event, NESG CEO, Dr. Tayo Aduloju, emphasized the importance of governance and partnerships. “Nigeria must take itself seriously. Governance must be at the heart of our conversations. Strategic partnerships, collaboration, and coordination are critical for achieving the transformative shifts we need,” he said.

The 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report serves as a roadmap for policymakers, business leaders, and stakeholders, charting the path toward economic stabilization and inclusive growth.

Visit nesgroup.org/outlook2025 to download. 

Ayanyinka Ayanlowo

Head, Strategic Communications and Advocacy

NESG

Download The NESG 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Document