Story Highlights

  • Our best and moderate case scenarios show that Nigeria will exit the recession in 2021 with an economic growth rate of 2.9% and 0.9%, respectively. Worst case scenario shows a growth rate of -2.5% in 2021.
  • The Nigerian economy needs more than a simple rebound - the economy needs a high, robust and sustained growth that delivers a significant reduction in unemployment and poverty.
  • Investment in critical sectors is what will drive economic recovery and sustain the growth momentum in the medium term.
  • Policymakers must understand that the business-as-usual scenario will only lead Nigeria down the drain of economic hardship, wider income inequality and increasing poverty.

In the last 60 years, the country's experience could be best described as "putting old wine in new bottles" or "business-as-usual" approach to policymaking and implementation. Put in other words, we cannot continue with our traditional lifestyle and then expect to achieve desirable outcomes. It is just like the popular saying that "you cannot eat your cake and have it".

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