Macroeconomic Outlook 2017

Looking Inwards: Will Nigeria tread the path of Economic Recovery and Growth in 2017?

The economic roller coaster, which started in mid- 2014, became severe in 2016. Nearly all expectations and the much-awaited impact of policy measures did not come out in the wash. Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 1.6% in 2016, a far cry from 3% growth rate recorded in 2015.

A wide range of economic sectors faced severe capacity shock on the backdrop of higher input cost and foreign exchange shortage. For instance, in the third quarter of 2016, agricultural sector was held up to a growth of 4.54% from the usual 6%, industrial sector fell sharply into the negative territory of 12.21% and services sector (which makes up more than half of economic activities) progressively became weaker with a growth of -1.17%. It was not a surprise that the economy, which experienced decelerating growth in 2015, eventually climaxed into recession in 2016.